Dialogue January-March, 2013, Volume 14 No. 3

 

Energy Scenario in the North East; An Overview

Anuj Goswami*       

Assam and the North East India badly need reliable electricity at affordable cost which is possible only through harnessing the rich hydro power potential of the region. Other alternative sources of power may be coal, natural gas, solar, wind, biomass etc. But the availability of coal is very limited in the region and hence the region can have only small size coal based plants which are neither economical nor ecofriendly. A coal based project of capacity 750 MW is under construction at Bongaigaon in Assam under central sector which will be fed from both the Eastern Coal fields and North Eastern Coal fields of Coal India Limited. The natural gas is available in Assam and in Tripura. Assam had three gas based plants at Namrup and at Lakwa in State Sector and at Kathalguri in Central Sector while Tripura had gas based projects at Baramura, Rakhia and Chakmaghat (proposed) in State Sector and at RC Nagar, Manarchewak (under construction) and Palatana (under trial run) in Central Sector. But the long term availability as well as price of the natural gas is uncertain. Few projects based on Non conventional energy sources, such as solar, biomass, municipal solid waste, Biogas etc are coming up in the Region but Non- Conventional Energy Sources are not going to replace conventional ones in the Region due to constraints in supply as well as cost.
        Hydro projects are necessary for power generation as well as for flood control, erosion control and irrigation. But most of the mega dams proposed in the North East are only for power generation Dams
are necessary evils as some undesirable impacts on society and environment are inevitable. Each dam has to be considered on merit. It is to be evaluated by weighing the benefits against costs to ecology and society and other costs like financial costs. If benefits outweigh the costs, a particular dam may be accepted as a developmental need. All displacement, geological, environmental, tectonic, biodiversity conservation, downstream impact etc. issues should be properly considered before setting up a big dam. All recommendations of World Commission on Dams (WCD) should be taken into account. Small and medium size dams are preferable to big dam to avoid biodiversity loss, to minimize downstream effect and to address the possibility of earth quake. But a few multi purpose dams targeted at flood control, erosion control, irrigation etc. besides power generation may be necessary in the North East Region.

 

* Shri Anuj Goswami is Astt. General Manager of Assam Power Distribution Company Ltd. The views expressed in the article are his own and do not reflect the views of his organisation. 

 

The Region:

Northeast India, consisting of the eight states of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim, is known for its biological and cultural diversity and the unique Brahmaputra and Barak river systems. While the eight states are indeed collectively referred together as the ‘Northeast’, there is substantial diversity within the region pertaining to political and socio-economic issues both historically and in contemporary times.

Three out of thirty four biodiversity hotspots identified globally -Himalaya, Indo-Burma, and Western Ghats and Sri Lanka – cover parts of India. The Northeast is traversed by the first two and is 8% of the country’s geographical area. It also houses 21% of important bird species within India, identified as per international criteria.

The Brahmaputra is one of the world’s largest rivers, with a drainage basin of 580,000 sq km, 33% of which is in India. Originating in the great glacier mass of Chema-Yung-Dung in the Kailas range of southern Tibet at an elevation of 5,300 m, it traverses 1,625 km through Tibetan territory and 918 km in India, before a final stretch of 337 km through Bangladesh, emptying into the Bay of Bengal through a joint channel with the Ganga. A unique river, it drains such diverse environments as the cold dry plateau of Tibet, the rain-drenched Himalayan slopes, the landlocked alluvial plains of Assam and the vast deltaic lowlands of Bangladesh. An extremely dominant monsoon interacting with a unique physiographic setting, fragile geological base and active seismic-tectonic instability, together with anthropogenic factors, have molded the Brahmaputra into one of the world’s most intriguing and gigantic river systems. In the course of its 2,880 km journey to the Bay of Bengal, the Brahmaputra receives as many as 22 major tributaries in Tibet, 33 in India and 3 in Bangladesh. Many of the north bank tributaries are of Himalayan origin, fed by glaciers in their upper reaches, e.g. the Subansiri, the Jia Bharali (Kameng), and the Manas. The Dibang and the Lohit are two large tributaries emerging from the extreme eastern flank of the Himalayas, while the Jiadhal, the Ranganadi, the Puthimari, and the Pagladiya are some of the major tributaries with sources in the sub-Himalayas, the latter two in Bhutan.. Due to the colliding Eurasian (Chinese) and Indian tectonic plates, the Brahmaputra valley and its adjoining hill ranges are seismically very unstable and the region has seen some major earthquakes.

Barak river has its source in Manipur and the upper Barak catchment area extends over almost the entire north, northwestern, western and southwestern portion of the state. The middle course of the river lies in the plains of Cachar in southern Assam, while the lower, deltaic course is in Bangladesh. Both the Brahmaputra and the Barak river systems are also the lifeline for livelihoods such as fishing and agriculture of local communities in their respective floodplains.


                        Present Power Allotment to Assam

Sl. PARTICULARS              CAPACITY,  ALLOTMENT       REMARKS

No.                                           MW                                               TO ASSAM

                                                                           %         MW      

1  Kathalguri (AGBPP)           291                   56.5       164          Gas based

2  R C Nagar (AGTPP)           84                     45.6       38            Gas based

3  Ranganadi HEP (RHEP)     405                   43.3       175           Run on River

4  Loktak HEP (LHEP)           105                   29.4       31            Reservoir

5  Khangdong HEP (KHEP)    50                     56.3       28            Reservoir

6  Kopili-I (KOP-I HEP)        200                   53.5       107           Reservoir

7  Kopili-II (KOP-II HEP)     25                     52.3       13             Reservoir

8  Doyang (DHEP)                 75                     43.8       33             Reservoir

A  Total CSGS-NER             1235                               589           

B  Total CSGS-ER                                                       162         

C  TOTAL CSGS 751          

1  Lakwa TPS                         157                   100        157           Gas based

2  Namrup TPS                       120                   100        120          Gas based

3  Karbi Langpi HEP              100                   100        100          Run on River

D  APGCL TOTAL               377                                 377         

OTHERS                            31                     100          31          EIPL, AOD,

                                                                                                       Champamati

                                                                                                       HEP etc.

F  TOTAL AVAILABILITY                                        1159       

NER-North Eastern Region,

ER-Eastern Region

Present Power Scenario in Assam

At present there is a power shortage situation in Assam, with a steep increase in demand for power in the last 3-4 years. In Guwahati City alone in the past five years, there has been a threefold increase in demand for power. Until a couple of years back only 16% rural households were electrified in the State, but as per the National Electricity Policy, steps have been undertaken during last few years to electrify every household of Assam by the year 2012/2013. As such, there has been a great increase in demand for power in the rural as well as urban areas in recent times.

Also with the increased development and economic activities in the last few years, Assam has been experiencing an average peak demand for power to the tune of 1100 MW this year. This is more than two times what it was five years ago. With no major power generation to be commissioned till next year, the demand, availability gap is widening.

Till now, Assam is mainly dependent on hydro generation. This is about 60% of the total existing availability. Most of these hydro generators are sourced through Run on River (RoR) projects which are solely dependent on the rainfall in the respective catchment areas. It was expected that these hydro generators would pick up to 100% of its capacity during this monsoon; but this year (2012-13) due to below normal rainfall the target could not be achieved. Also, the gas based thermal power stations are generating far below their full capacity due to inadequate supply of gas etc. Under this situation, at present, Assam is receiving only around 540 MW from the Central Sector Generating Stations (CSGS) during peak hours as against allocation of 751 MW. The total availability of power at present is around 800 MW including State’s own generation of about 260 MW. Assam Power Distribution Company Limited, the sole Distribution Licensee of the State is making efforts to minimize this 300 MW deficit by procuring 100-150 MW from the open market at a much higher price than the normal rate of procurement by the Company.

Two Central Sector projects namely 726 MW OTPC (ONGC Tripura Power Project) at Palatana in Tripura and 750 MW Bongaigaon Thermal Power Station (BTPS) of NTPC at Bongaigaon, Assam were expected to be partially commissioned in the year 2012. While the commissioning of BTPS was delayed, the OTPC project started generation on a trial basis from October 2012 which is expected to stabilize in March/April 2013. This would enhance allocation of additional 250 MW to Assam.

Small Hydro Policy of Government of Assam The Government of Assam had announced in March, 2007 a Small Hydro Power Policy inviting interested IPP/User Associations to bid for identified projects for the development of this sector. The identified potential for the development of Small Hydro Power (SHP) Projects in the state is about 148.90 MW at about 90 identified locations. So far a few such projects are being developed such as 2.25 MW Champamati SHP, 2.0 MW Pahumara SHP, 0.4 MW Rupahi SHP, 9 MW Myntriang HEP, 6 MW Lungnit HEP, 9 MW Doyang SHP, 1.6 MW Dronpara HEP etc.

Present Power Scenario in Meghalaya

Understanding the importance of Power as a prime mover for the development of the State, the Government of Meghalaya had initiated a number of measures to develop the state power sector to its fullest potential. In the past, there has not been any proper power development planning and this has resulted in making Meghalaya a power deficit state.

The government feels that the vast hydro potential of the State of about 3000 MW needs to be harnessed at the earliest. There is an intention to explore and possibly tap the power potential of up to 400 MW from small hydropower generation alone.

It is hoped that in the near future the state of Meghalaya will once again regain its status of a power surplus state. The existing seven Power Projects in the State with 17 power generation units have total capacity of approx 171 MW :

The peak demand and the supply from the State Sector and power Purchase are shown below:

Year                Unrestricted       State               Power           Total

2004-05                  220                 635.35              757.96          1393.31

2005-06                  280                 514.44              871.66          1386.10

2006-07                  350                 389.09              929.30          1318.39

2007-08                  385                 663.06              924.15          1587.21

2008-09                  425                 552.84              968.92          1521.76

2009-10                  425                 534.79              947.29          1482.08

2010-11                  425                 507.90             1129.15         1637.05

Another hydro project of capacity 42 MW is under construction at Myntdu Leshka .

Present Power Scenario in Tripura

The State Power Department was converted into Tripura State Electricity Corporation Limited (TSECL) in 2005. The power Position of the State may be seen in the Table below :

Power Position at a Glance

Maximum Peak Demand                                    221 MW as on 06-10-201

Installed Capacity                                              131 MW

Maximum Effective Capacity                            106 MW

Possible Peak Central Sector Drawa                l50 MW

Peak Shortfall                                                      55/60 MW

Uniform Load Shedding (Eve. Peak)                1:00/1:15Hrs.

TSECL Functional w.e.f                                     1st January 2005

Current Status

TSECL has a total capacity of 110 MW from 3 generating stations viz. Gomuti Hydro-electric Project, Baramura Gas Thermal Power Station and Rokhia Gas Thermal Power Station. In addition to this, it has diesel based generating units of 5.85 MW, which are operational since pre-independence. The unit-wise capacity of all generating stations is mentioned below.

Ongoing Capacity Addition in Generation

                21 MW Unit – V at Baramura GT Project.

Proposed Capacity Addition in Generation

               1.     105 MW CCGT Project at Chakmaghat.

               2.     104 MW TGBPP at Manarchwak by NEEPCO.

               3.     740 MW CCGT at Palatana by OTPC.

Present Power Scenario in Arunachal Pradesh

In order to oversee, co-ordinate and monitor the development of hydro power in the State of Arunachal Pradesh, the State Govt. has created a separate department namely “Department of Hydro Power Development” on 12/11/2003. The Department is entrusted with the development of micro / mini / small hydro project, improvement of existing hydro projects including renovation & modernization works etc. The Department is mainly concentrating on the urgent need of bridging the existing demand-supply gap in order to make the State self reliant, so far as power needs of the State are concerned

The Department at present has to its credit 35.19 MW installed capacity through 63 existing micro / mini / small Hydro Power Stations. Department is also under taking construction of 72 Hydro Stations in various districts of the State which are under different stages of development. Completion of these 72 ongoing schemes shall lead to a further capacity addition of 91.90 MW. In addition to above, Department is also carrying out Survey & Investigation of 38 schemes with the aim of identifying more potential sites for tapping the estimated 2000 MW small hydro power potential in the State.

The Department of Hydro Power Development has also been assigned the responsibility of acting as nodal agency for coordinating and overseeing the allotment and development of Mega Hydro Electric Projects in the State by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) as per State’s Mega & Small Hydro Power Policy. Department is looking forward to transforming the dream of making Arunachal Pradesh the "FUTURE POWER HOUSE OF THE COUNTRYinto reality.

Present Power Scenario in Manipur

The Power Department of the Manipur has given top priority to the generation schemes to make up the peak demand shortfalls. As a policy matter the Department has taken up many generation schemes under short-term and long-term measures. The hydro potential of Manipur, assessed at 60% Load Factor by the Department, is 1350 MW. However it could not be harnessed fully due to paucity of funds. The hydel projects that are to be taken up in the state under the Central and State Sectors are as follows:     

Micro Hydel Schemes proposed to be implemented by NHPC:

As proposed by the State Government, the Central Government took initiative to implement the following hydel projects in the state through the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) on "deposit basis" during the 9th Plan. The projects to be implemented under this scheme are:   

               Sl. No.          Name of Project            Capacity (MW)

                    1.              Ngeha                               3 x 1.00

                    2.              Inhu - I                             4 x 2.00

                    3.              Inhu - II                            3 x 1.00

                    4.              Bualkot                             3 x 1.00

                    5.              Chakpi                              2 x 1.00

                    6.              Sanalok                            3 x 1.25

                    7.              Makokching                    3 x 5.00

                                     Total :                              37.75     

New Proposals:          

A). Proposed Micro Hydel Schemes to be implemented under Capital

Subsidy Programme.

The State Government proposes to implement/ investigate the following hydel projects with different funding agencies

   Sl.   Name of       Capacity   Present status

   No.                         Project

    1.   Gelnel - II     2 x 100       DPR prepared and submitted to Govt. 

    2.   Tuipaki         2 x 250       Clearance from Forest and Environment 

    3.   Haipi             2 x 50         angles awaited for submission to MNES

          Total :           800             for financial assistance under Capital subsidy scheme.

B). Schemes proposed for survey and investigation

The following schemes are being taken up under the State Sector. 

i)   Medium/Small Hydro Electric Projects

Sl.     Name of Project    Capacity (KW)      Present status

No.

1.       Irang                         4 x 15 MW             Under Detail Survey and                             
                                                                            Investigation (DSI) with                              
                                             NEC fund.

2.      Tuivai                        3 x 17 MW             NEC fund is awaited for                                                    
                                                                            completion of survey and                                                              
                                                                            investigation work.                                                               
                                                                            *Revision is in progress.    
3.       Maklang-                  3 x 15 MW            NEC fund is awaited for                     
          Tuyungbi                                                starting survey and

                                                                            investigation work.    

ii). Mini/Micro Hydro Electric Projects:   

Sl.No.   Name of Project       Capacity (KW)   Present status

1.           Chakpi/Phunchang   3 x 200                  Pre-Feasibility Report

2.           Chakpikarong            3 x 200                  (PFR) submitted to

3.           Irang                            3 x 100                  Govt.  Detail Survey

4.           Ijai                                3 x 500                  and Investigation (DSI)

5.           Tupul                           3 x 300                  is being taken up as

             Total :                           3900                      soon as the financial                                                     
                                                                                  health of the state                                                                                  
                                                                                  permits.

C). Schemes taken up as Central Sector Project :

The following projects are to be taken up in the state under the Central Sector.

Sl. No.  Name of Project                     Capacity (KW)     Present status

Sl. No.  Name of Project                      Capacity (MW)     Agency

1.          Loktak Down Stream HEP     90                             NHPC

2.          Tipaimukh HEP                       1500                         NEEPCO

In brief most of the projects are still to be completed or undertaken and immediate relief may not be on the horizon.

Present Power Scenario in Mizoram

As Mizoram currently produces just 3 MW of power against its requirement of 70 MW. It heavily depends on power supply from central sector power stations in the Northeastern region. Sources from Power & Electricity department said power supply from the region’s load dispatch centre (NERLDC), Shillong recently reduced power supply to Mizoram to 50 MW, sometimes 30 MW during daytime, causing acute power shortage.

Present Power Scenario in Nagaland

Although the state’s own power generation capacity has improved over the recent years, it is still far from fulfilling the requirement. The State can meet barely 25 per cent of its requirement on its own. The 24 MW Likhimro hydropower project was the only power-producing asset owned by the state government. Its peak demand is 100 mw and it is expected to rise in future with growing industrialization in the state. For the proposed 1,200 MW coal-based power project, Nagaland is contemplating private sector participation. Sources in the Power Department indicated that some progress on the project should be visible in the early part of the XII Plan period.

Nagaland’s capability in sofar as power generation is concerned has been limited. For instance, the Likhimro project, though owned by the state government, is managed by a private company NEC Energy Pvt Ltd under a ten-year O&M contract, effective June 2006.

Most of the power requirements of Nagaland are met through projects of Central utilities like North Eastern Electric Corporation Ltd (Neepco) and NHPC Ltd. The biggest power project in Nagaland is Neepco’s 75-mw Doyang hydropower project in Wokha district. Doyang feeds electricity to each of the seven North-Eastern states.

It is also noteworthy that Nagaland has attracted private sector enterprise in power generation, mainly in micro and mini hydropower schemes. The Union ministry of new & renewable energy has identified 99 sites for small hydropower projects (each less than 25 MW) with aggregate capacity of 189 MW. Of these, 10 schemes totaling 29 MW were installed as of January 31, 2011, while four others, worth 4 MW in all, were under construction.

Signs of private entrepreneurs looking at Nagaland even for large hydropower schemes are surfacing. For instance, NEC Energy, the O&M contractor of the Likhimro project, has proposed to set up an independent power plant near Neepco’s Doyang project site, proposing to build at least 25 MW in the first phase. 

Hydro power schemes of North-Eastern India

The hydro power schemes and projects to realise their full potential are facing a number of problems and resistance based on apprehensions related to adverse impact on bio-diversity, flooding, security concerns related to seismic zone and inadequate and unreliable assessments and studies. These are reflected in following paras.

The Centre has identified the ecologically fragile Arunachal Pradesh (AP) as the powerhouse of the country. According to an estimate of the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), this State bordering China has the potential to generate over 57,000 MW of hydro power. Mr Nabam Tuki, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh stated on Sep 9, 2012 that out of the projected 60000 MW potential in the state, projects of almost 42000 MW installed capacity have already been allotted while additional 10000 MW is likely to be allotted soon. Power ministry officials stated that some state government-approved projects might not have been assessed properly. Jairam Ramesh, the then Central Power Minister remarked that AP Govt. had been suffering from MoU virus for sometime as it is signing Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with private power developers right and left.

The Union government is pushing for 157 hydro power schemes with an installed capacity of 57,672 MW in the North- Eastern India. Out of the 157 central Hydro power schemes, 114 schemes, with an aggregate installed capacity of 35,257.5 MW, have been allotted to the private sector. The central public sector undertakings have got 13 schemes (8,977 MW).

Large projects (above 25 MW) already in operation in Northeast

Sikkim: 60 MW Rangit III, 510 MW Teesta V

Assam: 225 MW Kopili, 50 MW Khangdong, 100 MW Karbi Langpi

Manipur: 105 MW Loktak

Meghalaya: 36 MW Umiam Stage I, 36 MW, 60 MW Umiam Stage III, 60 MW Umiam Stage IV

Arunachal Pradesh: 405 MW Ranganadi Stage I

Nagaland: 75 MW Doyang

11 projects with total installed capacity of 1686 MW

            •   Large hydropower under construction in Northeast

            •   Sikkim: Chujachen, Teesta III, Teesta VI, Rangit IV, Jorethang Loop

            •   Arunachal Pradesh: Kameng, Lower Subansiri, Pare

            •   Meghalaya: Myndtu, New Umtru

            •   10 projects with total installed capacity of 4891 MW. Many projects across the region are at various stages of clearance and be shortly under construction.

            •   Arunachal Pradesh – Biggest hydropower player in region.

            •   132 hydropower projects with total installed capacity of 40,140.5 MW already allotted by State Government to private and public sector players as on October 2010

                92 of these are large hydropower projects (above 25 MW)

                38 of these are above 100 MW

                50 projects granted Scoping or pre-construction environmental clearances (first stage) by Environment Ministry from September 2006 – October 2010

                7 hydro projects have received final environmental clearance till October 2010

Facts on Northeast Hydro

Northeast has the hydro potential of 63,257 MW. This is 43% of the total assessed hydropower potential of the country: Assam: 680 MW, Arunachal Pradesh: 50,328 MW, Manipur: 1784 MW, Meghalaya: 2394 MW, Mizoram: 2196 MW, Nagaland: 1574 MW, Sikkim: 4286 MW, Tripura: 15 MW

State-level figures may vary depending on updating by State Governments. e.g. Arunachal Pradesh now estimates a potential of 57,000 MW. Revised figures for the full Northeast region would be closer to 170 hydropower projects for a total capacity of 70,000 MW.

EIA (Environment Impact Assessment) Report: Impact of dam on the downstream beyond 10 km is not done in the EIA reports of the power projects of the North East Region. People’s perception is that discharge from the 60 MW Kurichu Project of NHPC and the 405 MW Ranganandi project of NEEPCO has been aggravating flood in Assam. World Bank and ADB made it mandatory to have a minimum 150 Km downstream Impact Assessment for funding a large dam project. Dr. Anwaruddin Choudhury, a renowned naturalist from Northeast India and an IAS officer of Assam cadre, has examined EIA reports of at least five large hydroelectric projects – Kameng, Lower Subansiri, Middle Siang, Tipaimukh, and Dibang – and finds them all poor on wildlife aspects. A common feature of his introductory comments on these reports has been: “contains innumerable (instances of) incorrect data, unverified and superfluous statements, and above all reveals the casual approach,”. Mr Choudhury says: “It is shocking that mega hydel projects in the northeast are being granted clearances based on such reports. How can we decide the fate of some of the country’s most important wildlife habitats based on sub-standard impact assessment studies?”

The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India has, in a 2009 report reviewing the implementation of the 10th Five Year Plan projects by NHPC and NEEPCO in the Northeastern and Eastern region, expressed concern about the time and money being spent on geological survey and investigations being lower than global standards. It is indeed a rare comment from CAG where it was stated that a lesser amount is spent in these projects on investigations than the norm. Generally the CAG points out higher expenditure in their audit reports.

Public hearing on Big Dams; Student and youth organizations of Arunachal Pradesh have been alleging that public hearings were conducted without proper information to people and in the presence of the police and paramilitary forces. There are several cases of people’s agitations against such Public Hearings for these mega projects.

Expert Committee’s view on feasibility and safety of Lower Subansiri dam:

NHPC is executing the 2000 MW Lower Subansiri HEP on the boundary of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. The Project has been facing public agitations for sometime for its future adverse downstream impacts in Assam. An Expert Committee comprised of experts on various aspects of LSHEP drawn from IIT, Guwahati, Gauhati University and Dibrugarh University constituted by the Government of Assam made few recommendations on various aspects of the project. The salient features of the Report of the Expert Committee are as follows:

 (i) “The selected site for the mega dam of the present dimension was not appropriate in such a geologically and seismologically sensitive location. The seismic design parameter is not properly chosen for the project). Recommended not to construct the mega dam at the present site.”

 (ii) “From geological, tectonic and seismological points of view, it is suggested not to consider the Himalayan foothills south of MBT (Siwalik formation) for any mega hydro project. It is recommended to redesign the project by sufficiently reducing the dam height and production capacity.”

 (iii) “To minimize the dam induced flash flood like in Ranganandi, proper and adequate flood cushioning be kept in the reservoir.”

 (iv) “Recommends reexamination and redesigning of spillway as per recorded maximum discharge of 21230 cumec”.

 (v) “The minimum discharge of the river be maintained through the turbines by at least one unit continuously for 24 hours a day for a discharge of 320 cumec. The minimum mean flow during the lean period is considered as the lower boundary of environmental flow in the present study which will help in maintaining river ecology and groundwater recharging.”

 In a press report in The Assam Tribune dated January, 2013 it was reported that NHPC has set up an independent dam design panel in early December last year in accordance with the recommendations of the Technical Experts Committee (TEC) comprising Dr C D Thatte and M S Reddy, both ex-chairman of the Central Water Commission. The Committee headed by the present CWC Chairman is to review the design features of the LSHEP dam and it has been given a time of three months to submit its report. The recommendations of the panel will be followed by the NHPC.

 The NHPC has also agreed to constitute a dam safety review panel with external experts for post construction inspection of the dam as recommended by the TEC. It has also accepted the TEC recommendation of urgent completion of study of the dam-break analysis and its clearance by CWC.

 The NHPC has agreed to setup a Reservoir Regulation Committee under the chairmanship of a CWC member for operation of the reservoir so as to ensure optimum flood moderation benefits in accordance with TEC recommendations

 As recommended by the TEC, the NHPC has also agreed to run one unit of the LSHEP continuously to ensure minimum downstream flow at 250 cumec and Central Electricity has consented for the same. This was also a recommendation of the TEC.

 North East Region in Seismic Zone V In the journal “Current Science”, Prof Ramesh Singh and Umesh Tahbildar of IIT, Kanpur remarked on proposed Dehang and Subansiri Dams as follows; “Technocrats involved with the proposed dam projects are relying on the available mathematical modeling techniques based on incomplete assumptions. Such crude assumptions do not convince one that it is safe to build dams in such a highly seismic region.” The NE region had a long history of Earth quakes. The history of the Ahom rulers of Assam recorded earthquakes in the years 1548, 1596, 1601, 1663, 1682, 1669, 1732, 1759, 1772, 1832 and 1848. After scientific recording had started, the following earthquakes occurred in the region;

       Sl. No.        Date of Occurrence           Intensity in Richter Scale

           1                10th January 1869                             7.5

           2                12th June 1897                                   8.7

           3                9th Sept 1923                                     7.1

           4                2nd July 1930                                     7.1

           5                21th January, 1941                          6.5

           6                23rd Oct, 1943                                    7.2

           7                29th July, 1947                                   7.7

           8                15th Aug, 1950                                  8.7

           9                21st March, 1954                               7.7

           10              1st July, 1957                                     7.0

           11              31st December, 1984                         6.0

           12              12th October, 1985                            5.3

           13              6th August, 1988                               7.3

           14              18th September, 2011                        6.9

 Landslides as a result of earthquake of 1950 in the Subansiri River stopped the flow of the river for 7 days. Huge flood with waves as high as 7 feet killed 600 people in Lakhimpur and Sibsagar districts. 156 people were killed and 70 villages destroyed in the Abor hills in AP. The river bed had risen due to heavy slit. The slit load was 30 times the yearly load of the river.

 Apprehension of the people regarding safety of the dam in high seismic zone need to be dispelled. Prof N. Sarma of IIT, Roorkee suggested comprehensive dynamic response analysis for seismic analysis which may be used to assuage the concerns of the people on the issue.

 Flood Control and Erosion Control: A devastating flood engulfed Assam in the early part of this year. From April to June 2012, 126 person were killed, 700 animals were killed in Kaziranga and other places of Assam. It was one of the biggest flood Assam had faced in recent times after the 2004 flood Similar huge flood devasted the state in 1997 and 1988. Around 40% of land area of the State were under flood this year. About 2.5 lakh hectares of agricultural lands were under water. Total loss to the State was Rs 11,316 crores.

Similar floods were observed due to sudden release of water from Ranganadi river Dam of AP and from Kuruchu river dam of Bhutan in several districts of Assam. In case of Ranganadi HEP of NEEPCO, there was inter-basin transfer of water from Ranganadi River to Dekrong River leading to depletion of water in Ranganadi River and flood in the Dekrong River.

Flood control in LSHEP

Three hydroelectric projects are proposed in the Subansiri River in Arunachal Pradesh which are allotted to different agencies as shown :

Upper Subansiri- 2000 MW - KSK Agency Venture Pvt Ltd

Middle Subansiri- 1600 MW - Jindal Power Ltd

Lower Subansiri- 2000 MW – NHPC Ltd

The LSHEP has no flood cushioning provision. Without the Upper and Middle projects, LSHEP will not help as far as flood moderation is concerned. The Joint Study Committee for study of flood moderation in Subansiri river recommended, "all the stake holders, including planners/State & Central Government Agencies may ensure that sufficient dedicated flood cushion is provided in Subansiri Upper and Subansiri Middle Projects for effective flood control in the Subansiri basin. The upstream projects may be cleared with provision of sufficient flood cushion”. It is doubtful whether the private investors for these projects will be agreeable to such arrangement.

Subansiri and other dams proposed without flood moderation might create hindrance in building big multipurpose dams on same rivers for control of flood. Ideally a master plan for flood control that includes identification of most suitable sites for large storage dams should precede construction of big dams. In fact The Bramhaputra Board had such a master plan which was forgotten by the planners.

Arunachal Pradesh had opposed such multipurpose dams because of fears of submergence and other ecological impacts. Assam may compensate AP by sharing the benefits out of these projects such as lands gained through control of flood and erosion.

By developing 10000 MW of hydro power, AP may gain about Rs 3000 Crores in a year in the form of free power received at present price. But the gain of AP should not be at the cost of Assam. But with Multipurpose project, AP will get the same free power and will also benefit from the resultant economic prosperity of its neighbor.

Suggestion of Prof Nayan Sarma of IIT, Roorkee for measures such as addition of a Piano key weir with ungated spillway on the dam crest to convert it into an multipurpose project with flood control and other benefits may be considered by NHPC/GOA. No such exercise has been undertaken by NHPC until now.

The World Commission of Dams (WCD) was Established in 1998 under Prof Kader Asmal as an independent , multistakeholder process.

WCD Identified 5 core values for decision making on water and energy development:

Equity, sustainability, efficiency, participatory decision making and accountability

WCD also established a new framework for decision making based on 7 strategic priorities viz

            •   Gaining public acceptance

            •   Comprehensive options assessment

            •   Existing dams

            •   Sustaining rivers and livelihood

            •   Recognizing entitlements & sharing benefits

            •   Ensuring compliance

            •   Sharing rivers for peace, development & security

                Key Decision stages identified by WCD are

            •   Needs Assessment

            •   Selecting alternatives

            •   Project preparation

            •   Project implementation

            •   Project operation

The new decision making framework will result in dams having lesser negative impacts and greater benefits; there will be no more bad dams if these principles are followed. It is hoped the Government will follow such a framework while planning and allotting the big hydro electric projects in the North Eastern region.

Selected Biblography

          1.   Report on Downstream Impact Study of the ongoing Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project at Gerukamukh of National Hydroelectric Power Corporation submitted by the Expert Group drawn from IIT, Guwahati, Gauhati University and Dibrugarh University. June, 2010.

          2.  Damning Northeast India: Juggernaut of hydropower projects threatens social and environmental security of region by Neeraj Vagholikar & Partha J.Das published jointly by Kalpavriksh, Aaranyak and Action Aid India, November, 2010.

          3.  Collection of papers presented in the Consultation on Big River Dams in Northeast India in Guwahati on 10th September, 2010 organised by Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India.

          4.   Large Dams For Hydropower in Northeast India; A dossier compiled by Manju Menon with Kanchi Kohli published by Kalpavriksh and South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People. March, 2005.

          5.  Collection of papers presented in the All India Peoples Science Network (AIPSN) Workshop on Energy Mix for India by 2030 in Kolkata on 15-16th December, 2012 organised by AIPSN and Paschim Banga Vigyan Mancha, Kolkata.

          6.  Report on 17th Electric Power survey and 18th Electric Power survey compiled by Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power, Government of India.

          7.   Report of the Joint Study Committee for Study of Flood Moderation in Subansiri River

          8.   Subansiri Dam: The Debate Within by Nilamoni Barua in The Assam Tribune dated 1st August, 2012

          9.   Lower Subansiri and the Politics of Expertise by Dr Sanjib Baruah in The Assam Tribune dated 22/01/2012

        10.   Jinx behind Hydro Electricity by Anubhav Dutta in The Assam Tribune dated 24/11/2010

        11.  Web sites of APDCL, TSCEL, MeECL, Power & Electricity Department, Mizoram, Power Department, Nagaland, Power department, Arunachal Pradesh, Power & Electricity Department, Manipur and World Commission of Dams.

Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author in this paper are his own and does not reflect the views of the organization he works under.

                       

Dialogue (A quarterly journal of Astha Bharati)

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