Dialogue January-March, 2005, Volume 6 No. 3
Population Trends in North-East India
Introduction
The northeast India comprises of seven states with a topographical terrain completely different from the rest of India. It is the largest reservoir of biodiversity not only of India but also of the whole world. With the diverse flora and fauna it is unique in its topography. The majority of the tribals of India inhabit the six northeastern states. Therefore the culture and the tradition of the people are varied in nature. This has a direct implication on the population trend in the northeastern region.
As per the 2001 Census, the population of India is 1027015247 (1.027 billion). At present India's population is approximately 16 percent of the world's population. It is the second largest populous country in the world. For the purpose of the present study and in terms of growth and size of India's population, it can be categorized under two broad periods, namely (i) Pre-Independence period (1901-1951) and (ii) Post Independence period (1951-2001). 1951 marks the dividing line between the two periods. From 1901 to 1951, India's population rose from 236 million (1901) to 361 million (1951) an increase of 125 million indicating a growth rate of 52.97 percent over a period of 50 years. It is an exponential growth of 0.85 percent per annum. In the Post-Independence period, the population of India increased from 361 million (1951) to 1027 million (2001) indicating an increase of 666 million with a growth rate of 184.48 percent or an exponential growth rate of 3.68 per annum. This shows a phenomenal increase of population in the Post-Independence era. It is interesting to note that during the last 20 years from 1981 to 2001, the population growth rate of India has actually decreased from 24.66 percent (1971-81) to 23.86 percent (1981-91) to the current rate of 21.34 percent (1991-2001). If this trend continues, the population growth rate of India will stabilize by the years 2021 (Census Year). In absolute terms, the population is increasing and is affecting the life in general. Natural resources like forest products, petroleum, food, deterioration of environment, etc will affect the general life of the people in the years to come.
Data and Analysis
The study is based on Census of India (1981, 1991 and 2001). Some of the tables have been computed from the census data. In the present study the author has divided the country's population into five zones similar to the one by Pandey and Goel1. The zones have been classified as follows:
1. North Zone: Delhi, Chandigarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh
2. South Zone: Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Kerala, Pondichery and Tamil Nadu
3. West Zone: Chhatisgarh, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Goa, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
4. East Zone: Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Sikkim and West Bengal
5. North East Zone: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura
Table 1
Zonal Population Indicators
Area Population in million Growth (%) Density Km2
Km2 1991 2001 1991 2001 1991 2001
North 20.33 23.47 24.41 25.77 26.12 438 562
West 39.25 27.39 27.92 25.39 23.67 179 222
South 19.38 23.29 21.76 18.99 13.25 309 351
East 13.29 22.1 22.16 23.2 21.85 430 525
NE 7.75 3.71 3.75 21.87 22.02 123 151
India 100 100 100 23.5 21.34 267 335
The grouping of states into zone is scientific. There is more diversity in the zones than similarity. They differ in size, religion, language, customs and demographic trends. However, the data reveal that the population density has significantly increased in each zone during the last two decades (1981-2001). The population growth rate is declining in the West, East and South zones whereas it has slightly increased in the Northeast zone (+0.04%) and North zone (+0.35%). The population growth has declined in the country as a whole during the 1991-2001. Pandey and Goel2 have shown that literacy rate has increased in all the states in India except Daman & Diu. In all other 16-states/union territories, population growth rate is still high ranging from 25.80 to 64.41 percent. There are only 13 states/union territories in India which have shown annual growth rate below 1.8 percent (Assam, Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Himachal Pradeh, Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshdweep, Orissa, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttaranchal and West Bengal).
North-Eastern Region
The population of North Eastern Region is 38.49 million. 69.20 percent of the population live in Assam (2001) while the rest is distributed in the other six states in the region. In all other states, the population share of the states to North East India is below 8.5 percent and ranging from 2.31 percent in Mizoram to 8.29 percent in Tripura. The population of the region constitute only 3.57 percent of the population of India while it covers 7.57 percent of the total territorial area.
Table 2
Population Indices of NE Region, 1971-2001
Population (in million) Density (per Km2) Percent share of NER
1971 1981 1991 2001 1971 1981 1991 2001 1971 1981 1991 2001
AP 4.67 6.31 8.58 10.91 6 8 10 13 2.38 2.37 2.37 2.83
Assam 146.25 180.41 244.95 266.38 186 230 284 349 74.68 74.77 71.77 69.20
Manipur 10.72 14.2 18.27 23.88 48 64 82 107 5.47 5.34 5.82 6.20
Meghalaya 10.11 13.35 17.61 23.06 45 60 78 103 5.16 5.02 5.61 5.99
Mizoram 3.32 4.93 6.86 8.91 16 23 33 42 1.69 1.85 2.19 2.31
Nagaland 5.16 7.74 12.16 19.89 31 47 73 120 2.63 2.91 3.87 5.17
Tripura 15.56 20.53 27.45 31.91 149 136 262 304 7.94 7.71 8.75 8.29
NE 195.82 257.51 313.87 384.95 77 104 123 151 3.57* 3.88* 3.71* 3.75*
All India 5479.5 6832.29 8439.31 10270.15 177 216 267 335 - - - -
* relates to All India
Growth of Population in the North-East
A comparison between Table 1 and 3 reveals that the population growth in the North Eastern Region is slightly higher than the country as a whole but lower than the Northern and Western zones during the period from 1991-2001. But the growth rate of population during the decades 1991-2001 has increased by 0.15 percent in the North Eastern Region.
Prior to Independence the population growth of North East Region was high as compared with the country as a whole. During the post-Independent period (1951-2001) the population growth rate in the North East Region has been very high as compared with the population growth rate of rest of India. Since 1961 in the North Eastern Region, there has been a gradual decline in the population growth rate but during the decade 1991-2001, the population growth rate of the region increased negligibly.
Table 3
Population Growth in the North-East (1901-2001)
Year Population Decadal Growth Decadal Growth
(in Million) (NER) (%) (India) (%)
1901 4.30 - -
1911 5.10 18.42 5.75
1921 6.00 18.71 -0.31
1931 7.20 19.44 11
1941 8.60 20.15 14.22
1951 10.30 19.06 13.31
1961 14.50 41.33 21.51
1971 19.60 35.04 24.8
1981 26.10 33.24 24.66
1991 31.38 21.87 23.5
2001 38.50 22.02 21.34
There was negligible increase in population growth rate in the North Eastern region. Nagaland recorded an exceptionally very high population growth rate which is to the extent of 4.4 percent from 1991-2001. The growth rate of Nagaland is more than 3 times as compared to India's population growth rate, more than 4 times to that of population growth rate of Assam and Tripura and double than that of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Mizoram. The data also reveal the low sex ratio that prevails in Nagaland as compared to other states of the region (Table 4). It also suggests the trend of in-migration. The population growth rate in other five states except Manipur has decreased during the last two decades. In Manipur the annual growth rate is only 0.10 percent during 1991-2001 from 1981-1991.
Population Growth and Literacy
Table 4 further reveals that literacy has no influence in reducing the population growth rate during the last 50 years. The impact of high literacy may appear more significant from the next Census data (2011 AD).
Several studies Bhuyan3, Goel4, Pandey5 have shown that one of the reason for high population growth rate in the North Eastern States is due to
1. Influx of population from the neighboring countries and from the other states of the country
2. High natural growth rate due to the lack of proper medical facilities
3. High exponential growth rate in some of the North Eastern States in particular and region in general.
Table 5 indicates that some of the states in the North East Region are experiencing a high birth rate as compared to average birth rate of
Table 4
Literacy Rate, Population Growth and Sex Ratio in North-East Region, 1971-2001
State Literacy rate Population Growth Rate Sex Ratio
(%) (%) Per 1000 male
1971 1981 1991 2001 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 1971 1981 1991 2001
71 81 91 2001
Arun. Pradesh 11.3 25.4 41.2 54.4 38.9 35.1 36.8 26.2 861 862 859 901
Assam 28.2 - 53.4 64.2 34.7 23.4 23.5 18.9 954 946 923 932
Manipur 32.9 49.6 68.1 68.8 37.1 32.4 29.2 30.2 980 971 958 978
Meghalaya 29.5 42.0 48.2 63.3 32.0 32.0 32.8 29.9 942 954 955 975
Mizoram 53.8 74.2 81.2 88.4 24.9 48.5 29.7 29.1 946 919 921 938
Nagaland 27.4 50.2 61.3 67.1 39.9 50.0 56.0 64.4 871 863 886 909
Tripura 31.0 50.1 60.3 76.6 36.3 31.9 34.3 18.2 943 946 945 950
India 29.5 43.5 52.1 65.3 24.8 24.6 23.5 21.3 930 934 929 934
Source: Census of India, 1971,1981, 1991 and 2001.
the country. The states, which have recorded high birth rate, are Meghalaya (28.7/1000) and Assam (27/1000) as compared to All India figure of 26/1000. For the state of Nagaland, the data for birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate and natural growth rate is not available, However, exponential growth rate for Nagaland during 1981-1991 and 1991-2001 is very high, indicating that birth rate and natural growth rate are high as compared to the other states of the North Eastern Region. As per the National Health and Family Survey-2, 1998-99 and the data on Table-5, Meghalaya and Assam have high natural growth rate compared to the natural growth rate of India. In 1983 the Government of India framed the population policy, and its long-term objectives were to bring down the natural growth rate from 25 percent to 12 percent. Tripura and Mizoram are the only two states in the North Eastern Region that have achieved this target. Meghalaya (19.5) and Assam (17.3) are the two states which have shown that they have
Table 5
Birth rate, Death rate, Infant Mortality Rate, Natural Growth rate
and Exponential Growth Rate of North East India
States Per 000 population Exponential
Growth Rate (%)
Birth Death Natural Infant 1981 1991-
Rate Rate Growth Mortality -91 2001
Rate Rate
Arunachal P. 22.3 6.0 16.3 43 3.1 2.3
Assam 27.0 9.7 17.3 76 2.2 1.7
Manipur 18.6 5.4 13.1 25 2.6 2.6
Meghalaya 28.7 9.1 19.5 56 2.8 2.6
Mizoram 17.0 5.5 11.5 19 3.3 2.6
Nagaland NA NA NA NA 4.5 5.0
Tripura 17.0 5.7 11.3 42 3.0 1.5
India 26.0 9.3 16.7 67.6 2.1 1.9
Target 21.0 9.0 12.0 50 1.2 1.2
Source: Demographic Profile of India, National Family and Health Survey-2, 1998-99.
almost one-and-half times the targeted natural growth rate (12)*. The exponential growth rate for all the states in the North Eastern Region is more than double the targeted value as projected during 1981-91 and 1991-2001. The exponential growth rate in case of Nagaland is showing an increasing trend while the other states in the region have shown a declining trend.
During the last 50 years the North Eastern Region has experienced a high population growth rate along with high literacy. Some of the states in the region have achieved more than 75 percent of literacy rate (Mizoram and Tripura). A decline in death rate and infant mortality indicates a positive demographic trend towards decline in the population growth rate.
The death rate has declined but birth rate is still high which has lead to high natural growth rate. These states will have to generate awareness on the decline of birth rate by providing necessary birth control measures in their population programmes. It may also be suggested that while formulating population policy for their states, reduction in birth rate may be given special emphasis. At present, the data reveal the impact of literacy in reducing population growth rate.
References
1. Pandey, M.C. and Goel, N.P. (1994): “Population Trend in the North-Eastern Region”, in S. Mukherjee, et al (eds), Demographic Profile of North-East India, Omsons Publications, New Delhi, pp. 1-7.
2. Pandey, M.C. and Goel, N.P. (2002): “Literacy and Population Growth in India” (Communicated, Indian Journal of Population Education).
Pandey, M.C. and Langstieh, B.S. (1994): “Growth of Population and Literacy in the Districts of North Eastern States”, J. of North East India Council
of Social Science Research, Vol. 18, pp. 45-53.
3. Bhuyan, M.C. (1977): “Immigrant Population of Assam: An Analytical Synthetic Study”, Ph.D. Thesis, Geography Department, Gauhati University, Gauhati.
4. Goel, N.P. (1982): “Demographic Structure of North East India”, Ph.D. Thesis, Department of Geography, NEHU, Shillong.
5. M.C. Pandey and Goel, N.P. (1994): op.cit.
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* In 1983, when the population policy of India was revised by the Government of India, Sixth-Five Year Plan (1980-85) that had laid down long term demographic goals to bring the natural growth rate 1.2 percent by 1991-2001, Planning Commission Document.